Economic Interview: Q4 Forecasts

The Washington Bureaucrat has compiled the consensus transcript of an upcoming radio interview with the chief economist at Neumann Brothers, who will join Market Economy Hour to share his forecasts for the economy. The outlook? Mostly cloudy.

Read the transcript. Or scroll down.


December 19, 2011

The following is the consensus transcript of an upcoming radio interview with Farley Chalmers, chief economist at the investment bank Neumann Brothers, who will visit Market Economy Hour to discuss his fourth quarter forecasts for U.S. GDP growth.


HOST: “Welcome back to Market Economy Hour. We know that the economy is a disaster and everything is only going to get worse thanks to China. This Thursday we find out just how bad when the BEA releases pre-preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter.”


HOST: “I’m joined now by Farley Chalmers, chief economist at Neumann Brothers, who is here to share his economic outlook. Mr. Chalmers, thank you for joining me.”

CHALMERS: “Thank you for having me on.”

HOST: “Thank you.”

CHALMERS: “Thank you.”

HOST: “Let’s talk GDP. Preliminary numbers for the fourth quarter come out Thursday. What are you forecasting?”

CHALMERS: “We’re looking at 2.2-2.3%. The economy is softening and consumer confidence is weak.”

HOST: “I’m looking at your outlook report from last week, and it says 2.0-2.1%.”

CHALMERS: “Yes, that was when the economy was softening, consumer confidence was weak, and the jobs outlook was negative. Now we’ve raised the jobs outlook from negative to stable.”

HOST: “Okay, well two weeks ago you forecast GDP growth of 2.5-2.7%.”

CHALMERS: “Right again. You see, two weeks ago the economy was softening but consumer confidence was stable and the jobs outlook was rosy.”

HOST: “I’ve just been handed an advance copy of your company’s GDP outlook to be released later this morning, and the number there is 2.8-3.0%.”

CHALMERS: “It’s a dynamic equilibrium out there, my friend. Five minutes ago we thought the economy was softening when really what it appears to have been doing is congealing. The markets love that. They eat it up like pudding.”

HOST: “And who exactly are these markets?”

CHALMERS: “Oh you know, the markets. As in, the markets took a downturn today because they missed their morning appointment with their therapist.”

HOST: “If I were a reader of your reports how would I know which forecast to go by?”

CHALMERS: “The right one, of course.”

HOST: “Which is?”

CHALMERS: “Right when the numbers come out. We also issue a bulletin predicting how the markets will react.”

HOST: “What determines their reaction?”

CHALMERS: “Well, that is largely based on how closely the numbers line up with what was forecast.”

HOST: “Thank you, Mr. Chalmers. We’ll be right back.”


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